by Blair Madole

photo courtesy of NOAA

Small, summertime hail storms in the Colorado Front Range could disappear by 2070, according to a recently published study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

The study focuses on the effect of climate change on the smaller hail storms typically seen during the spring and summer seasons in the Front Range. Assuming climate-warming greenhouse gases continue to increase from the current atmospheric levels of 390 parts per million to the estimated levels of 620 parts per million in 2070, the hail produced from these storms may melt to rain before it ever reaches the ground.

While the prospect of fewer potentially damaging hail storms may excite the gardeners and farmers concerned about their plants and the handful of people who don’t own a Subaru and are instead concerned about the paint job on their ridiculously expensive, mostly useless sports car, the lack of hail may actually cause problems for the Front Range, says Kelly Mahoney, a research scientist at CIRES and the lead author of the study.

The Front Range is used to summer storms producing hail instead of rain, which means the area is used to experiencing a slow melt after a storm, not a sudden downpour. If the atmospheric temperature continues to rise and the hail melts into rain before hitting the surface, it could lead to problems of flash floods in the Front Range, according to Mahoney.

But, there are a couple reasons we shouldn’t be too concerned. First, maybe we will figure out some super-efficient alternative energy source that will basically eliminate greenhouse gases and rising atmospheric temperatures will no longer be a concern. Second, if that doesn’t happen, by 2070 we may have discovered things like floating houses, flying cars and teleportation that make the threat of flash floods laughable. Finally, if all else fails, there’s always the Mayan prophecies for the end of the world on Dec. 21 of this year, so who really cares about 2070?

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